Scenarios based on NFI12-NFI13

In MELA summary reports, the regional results of the industrial roundwood and energy wood removals are presented for three scenarios:
- NT maximum economic removal
- SY maximum sustained yield
- TH realized cutting removals

The scenarios were calculated separately for 19 regions using the administrative boundaries with the situation of the beginning of 2021. The results for the Southern and Northern Finland as well as for the whole country were compiled as sums of the regional results. The North Finland includes the regions of Northern Ostrobothnia, Kainuu and Lapland. Other regions belong to the Southern Finland.

All the net present value calculations have been made using the roadside prices for industrial roundwood (saw logs and pulpwood) and the prices of forest chips at the mill yard for the energy wood subtracted with costs of logging and silvicultural operations.

NT : Maximum economic removal

Maximum economic removal scenario defines the industrial roundwood and energy wood harvest levels that maximize the net present value without taking into account any sustainability constraints or the demand of wood products. This scenario will harvest all the cutting possibilities as soon as they are feasible for harvesting according to the silvicultural recommendations and which do not fulfill the economic prerequisite (5 % discount rate) for further growing. This scenario defines the maximum short-term economical timber supply.

SY : Maximum sustained yield

The maximum sustained removal is defined by maximizing the net present value with 4 % discount rate subject to non-declining periodic removals of industrial roundwood, energy wood and saw logs as well as non-declining periodic net income. There are no sustainability constraints concerning tree species, cutting methods, age classes or the growth/drain -ratio in order to efficiently utilize the dynamics of forest structure. Energy wood removal can consist of stems, cutting residues, stumps and roots.

TH : Realized cutting removals

Realized cutting removal scenario outlines the development of forest resources if the current (2019–2021) industrial roundwood (Luke 2023c) and energy wood (Luke 2023e) harvesting levels are carried out in the future. In this scenario, the net present value is maximized with 4 % discount rate subject to realized cutting removals by timber assortments. The primary target is to fulfill the realized removal levels of total roundwood and total energy wood and after that to reach the removal levels of industrial wood and saw logs by tree species and energy wood by assortments. The realized removals are used as constraints in the optimization and by default they are allowed to vary ±0.5 % which can be increased for each constraint separately if needed. There are no restrictions concerning the removals e.g. by cutting methods, diameter classes or forest site types.